Wii success may lead to cheaper next-gen

[Shrygue]

via Computer and Video Games


Analyst Billy Pidgeon with IDC tells Next-Gen that in the wake of the Wii's success and the explosion of casual, community gaming, the PlayStation 3 could be the last of the state-of-the-art consoles.

At launch, researchers estimated that Sony lost around $240 per 60GB PS3 sold. A pricey Blu-ray drive, state-of-the-art GPU and multicore Cell processor drove costs to new heights. Xbox 360's per-unit loss wasn't much better at launch at around $125 per console, according to estimates.

And then the Wii, with its cheap "GameCube 1.5" technology came along, albeit with motion sensing, showing that Nintendo could sell a console at no loss, attract a massive following and be profitable from the start.

"I think the results of this cycle will have a strong influence on the next cycle, in that cheaper consoles will be expected," Pidgeon says, alluding to the success of the $250 Wii. "Microsoft and Sony will attain successful business on this generation, but catering to the early adopter hardcore gamers with a technology leader strategy will be difficult in 2011.

"...Third party publishers are already looking for ubiquitous platforms to reach the market increase achieved by Nintendo and Guitar Hero," Pidgeon says. "The platforms of the next cycle may not be a console at all, but software distributed by network to convergent devices like PCs, set top boxes and smart phones."

He adds, "I would have dismissed this idea as unachievable last cycle when only Xbox could provide a promising connected console experience, but it is entirely possible that the PS3 is the last bleeding edge console hardware we will see."

Further analysis of the Wii's effect on the next console cycle can be found in the Next-Gen feature, "Wii the Death Knell of the Bleeding Edge Console?"

[Dbgtgoten]

I really don't want cheaper consoles if what we get is the wii cause the wii has what a few games for the real gamer while theres $#@! like mini game games and other bs like that which i don't see on the 360 i admit the ps3 is over priced and not worth it but in the same sense you could say the wii is underpriced and not worth the money guess whos in the middle microsoft =P i am happy with thier price and graphics so thats teh one i take

[onetwentyeight]

i must say i long for wii controls while playing my xbox360 and long for graphics further separated from my gamecube while playing my wii, but the real winner is the ps3.

with its supposed ten lifespan while other consoles will being seeing updated hardware after their five year lives, sony will finally be getting some decent content for what will be its five year old hardware and will have dropped to a price competitive with next gen offerings from the other companies.

and home will finally be an open beta.

[____anders____]

well, i guess that m$ and sony is BURNED by Nintendo, i mean they didn't really come up with anything new, they just toss in better hardware stuff in a small box, but N they got the motion sensing controllers, how many of you DIDN'T dream of that when you were a kid? when you sat there with an atari 2600 and human cannonball in your a*s

i thought that motion sensing was like 100 years away when i was a kid..

you remember when you got pissed at the racing game or when you lost at counter strike or something, cus you sat there turning your controller all the time (i know you did!) and now that's the only way you can play the game, by turning you wiimote or point it at the screen.

i know the light gun for NES was good too with duck hunt, and there it is! NINTENDO AGAIN! they did it twice, the light gun and the wiimote, it just doesn't feel right when you play an FPS game with a joystick, or a driving game with buttons..

M$ and sony gotta come up with something new or else nintendo is going to run over them in time, just wait and see what i mean..

[Brainy142]

I hate that the wii doesnt do 720p It make me mad

[Shadowblind]

well, i guess that m$ and sony is BURNED by Nintendo, i mean they didn't really come up with anything new, they just toss in better hardware stuff in a small box, but N they got the motion sensing controllers, how many of you DIDN'T dream of that when you were a kid? when you sat there with an atari 2600 and human cannonball in your a*s

Of course I dreamed of motion control when I was a kid. But I hardly call what the Wii has given me "good realistic controls." I dreamed of good, accurate motion control. And yes, it is VERY possible with todays tech.

Meh. All I know is that Ninty had a good idea, but didn't go far enough with it. I'll stick to my 360 till they get some more games.

[Cerepol]

If only Microsoft and Nintendo put aside their differences and went all in on a console. We'd be in heaven.

[masterchief929]

Cerepol, if Nintendo and Microsoft came out with a system together i would pay $5,000 if i had to! but leave sony to rot! they make sure it was at least 5,000!

[____anders____]

@ Shadowblind..

i think that it is pretty accurate, but too bad it's not that accurate in zelda TP, but that's probably cus it was a launch title, and nintendo maybe learned a alittle by the time, like in smg i think it's accurate enough not to be a pain, like it sometimes is in zelda
and it's pretty good in MP3 too imo..

but still, of course there will be more break throughs with motion sensing in gaming consoles.. and even cooler ones..

EDIT: i also like the idea of a console that all three of them would have made one console together, like combinig the wiis motion sensing, X360s live and PS3s graphics and storage, and of course linux

[jdnation]

This whole thing has taught us one lesson... and that's the fact that a cheaper console is easier to sell abd profit off on. I think we're being a bit paranoid here. The Wii's success isn't because it's cheap, sure a cheaper console would've sold more either way, but the Wii's success comes from the innovative motion controller that has the masses sold!

If the Wii didn't have the Wiimote then it would've failed entirely. If anything this would make Sony and Microsoft try to tihnk more outside the box on their next console as well as try to keep costs down. But so far the generation is only two years in... the real deal breaker will be how this generation plays out in its entirety! We'll only know towards the end of the PS3's cycle and how it performs on what route Sony will take. If at the end of it all the PS3 manages to garner the success of the PS2, then Sony will still use the same strategy of early losses on an expensive powerhouse product, withstand initial public criticism and fanboy rage, and then deliver on it's promises overtime and then win.

Sony isn't going after the mass market yet. They know it and planned for it all along. The system is expensive and they know they can't sell as many. That's where the PS2 and PSP come in... Once PS3 manufacturing costs come down to sell at a lower price and make profit, then they'll be ready to kill off the PS2 and ease the PSP base towards the PS3 due to their interconnectivity. They're not ready to get the PS3 to the casual market price yet, which is why their initial marketing and spec speak was only aimed at the hardcore and 'elite' gamers who would put the money down and deal with the initial lack of software and missing features.

With each successive price drop and as more of the casual features and introduced and working, such as HOME, the marketing will become more and more mass friendly and so on etc. The recent TV advertisements and campaigns coincided with the price drop and introduction of the 40GB. It's not a coincidence, it's a long term planned strategy.

Next gen will have to do with how it all turns out closer to the end of this gen. We've got a long way to go. If the powerful PS3 sells as much as PS2 (It doesn't have to beat the Wii), Sony will do it all over again. But of course everyone is studying the Wii success, and no doubt they'll be attempting at best to minimize their own costs and entry cost to consumers alongside a more powerful console... but they've obviously been doing that anyway... But this time blu-ray was a nesessary implementation for them and they took the risk of a high cost console strictly from the physical media standpoint which will probably not be so much of an issue next time.

The real question is what will each do in the innovation department? How will Nintendo top the Wii? What kind of interfaces will Microsoft and Sony implement? Because as I said, the Wii's success is really it's controller, not so much it's low cost... as eventually the 360 and PS3 will also hit that price and those getting into it then will have a larger wealth of games and features to get into.