Believing Blu-ray will succeed doesn't make sense

[wraggster]

CNET's Crave on Friday reported on Nielsen's latest VideoScan figures, showing that Blu-ray Disc's market share in the video disc market has slumped in the past week.

According to Nielsen, Blu-ray's market share dropped to just 8 percent of the overall market, giving DVDs a whopping 92 percent ownership.

Granted, those figures show only one week's performance, and Blu-ray may have a huge week soon and capture more of the market, but let's be honest with ourselves: do we really think that will happen?

According to a study released in August by ABI Research, more than half the people it surveyed had no plans to buy a standalone Blu-ray player in the near future, and 23 percent are considering it, but not until 2009.

When your format is limping along with just 8 percent of the market, the last thing you want to hear is that only 23 percent of the population actually wants a Blu-ray player.

But wait! There's always the PlayStation 3, right? Surely, everyone who knows about Blu-ray is picking up a PlayStation 3 to watch their movies. After all, won't that product be the savior for which Sony has been waiting?

Please. According to NPD's latest numbers, Sony sold just 185,000 PlayStation 3 units, which represented a 17 percent drop, compared to July sales numbers. Worse, it barely beat out the PlayStation 2, DVD player and all.

The PlayStation 3 isn't going to be Blu-ray's savior, and neither is that sub-$200 price tag. At this point, I simply don't see how Blu-ray has a chance.

Eight percent of the market is nothing. Sure, it's a young product, and DVD started out slowly too, but do all the people who espouse the belief that Blu-ray will succeed somehow forget that the jump between VHS and DVD was substantial?

Find yourself a VCR, and pop a tape into it. After that, throw a DVD into your player, and watch it on your HDTV. When you're done with that, do me a favor, and pop a Blu-ray movie into your PS3. Notice anything shocking when comparing VHS to DVD and anything, well, disappointing when comparing that DVD movie to Blu-ray?

That's what I thought.

Why would I want to buy a Blu-ray player and Blu-ray movies, which are more expensive than DVDs, when I can get the same basic experience (if not quite as enhanced) for little or no additional cost?

Worse, why would I want to buy my library of movies all over again, once Blu-ray becomes the de facto leader in disc media? That's an added expense I'm not willing to incur.

But the issues with Blu-ray go far beyond the slight difference (except on large HDTV screens) between DVD and Blu-ray. How about the fact that Blu-ray movies can't be brought, well, anywhere?

Sure, you can buy a Blu-ray movie at the store or get one from Netflix, and play it on your PS3 or standalone player, but you won't be able to play it on your notebook unless you have the latest and greatest laptop on the market. And you certainly won't be able to watch it in the car on a long ride. And unless your friends have a PS3 or a Blu-ray player, you won't be able to watch it with them, either.

Mobility is a key reason why DVD is such a success. You can buy a portable DVD player or pick up some movies, and play them practically anywhere you are. At this point, you simply can't do that with Blu-ray.

We also can't forget about HD downloads, the various streaming services on the Web, set-top boxes that let you stream movies to your home theater, cable boxes, and countless other technologies that put Blu-ray's usefulness and its entire future in doubt.

Services like Hulu are becoming increasingly popular, and products like the Roku Netflix box could easily command much of the market, as more people realize that streaming movies to an HDTV is more than possible. Better yet, iTunes now has HD video, which means that taking HD from your computer to your HDTV is getting simpler with each passing day.

And all the while, Blu-ray is the wild card, hoping against hope that someone, anyone, will finally find considerable value in the product, adopt it, and start making everyone around them jump on the bandwagon.

But alas, the possibility of that happening is slim. Blu-ray, while appealing in its own right, is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. As the inertia of the industry starts pulling us away from physical media formats, and HD video can be easily found elsewhere, everyone will realize that what they really need to do is move past Blu-ray and start using the products that will carry them into the future.

It may have beaten HD DVD, but Blu-ray doesn't stand a chance against DVD, nor the broader industry it's a part of. It's as simple as that.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-10052157-17.html

[DPyro]

Maybe if the popular movies were $20 instead of $35 people would buy more of them.

[Facho]

It's funny, I've read just tow days ago that BD has bigger market share that the DVD format had in the same life cycle.

And don't talk about digital distribution, 90% of the people prefer to have some physical disc with a box to store their movies. It's more than just simply watching movies or playing games, it's also about collecting them.

[Accordion]

Really I don't think downloads will be a mainstream option for some time, loads of places dont have broadband, or suitable limits from providers [2GB/month! etc.]

Lets not get started on the picture quality.

[Triv1um]

It makes good sense to be honest.

I have to agree.

[Dogcity77]

And don't talk about digital distribution, 90% of the people prefer to have some physical disc with a box to store their movies. It's more than just simply watching movies or playing games, it's also about collecting them.

...that will explain why itunes store is having such a hard time selling people music... oh wait...

...and didn't someone once point out that 63% of all statistics were made up?

[quzar]

...that will explain why itunes store is having such a hard time selling people music... oh wait...

Relative to the amount of people who simply pirate music instead, they do. People who want to pay for something usually want a physical product to go with it as evidenced by the recent Radiohead album and um... that other one from that group I can't remember.

[Rufus]

I find it humourous that popular media is predicting the demise of BluRay at what is essentially the time of its introduction. It has only been a few years that portable DVD players have been on the market and only a few years before that that VHS tapes have been replaced by DVD. For that matter, who really carries a portable DVD player (with 2.5 hour batteries) or laptop (with only slightly more) just to play movies? Most people would DivX or Xvid it to their digital player - much smaller form factor and *some* BD have downloadable content just for that purpose. Once BD's price comes down to a more reasonable level we may finally start to see some of the feature sets promised with the DVD format...

[Gene]

With at least 5.1 channel audio and the incredibly realistic action, if you have an HDTV and a PS3 you are an idiot not to buy a movie in a bluray if you're looking for quality. It makes sense that some movies don't need high quality to be great movies so dvd's would save money, but movies like, say Iron Man or Dark Knight, I'd regret not buying bluray. I personally don't think bluray will win, or lose. It will, for a long time be #2 to dvd, but it will always be around for the hardcore fan wanting the theater experience. Thats my whole perception of this. But I do agree with the compatibility issue. I wish bluray came with some sort of free digital download as well so I could put it on my ipod for example. For now the only other option is to pirate a digital copy of a bluray you own, or drop another $15-25 on a dvd.

[quzar]

I wish bluray came with some sort of free digital download as well so I could put it on my ipod for example.

Quite a few do. They'll have a little logo on the box. They'll come with a coupon code of some sort.

[HI-Saturn]

I've said it before and I'll say it again BD won't take off till prices come down to a reasonable level. Seriously who's going to pay $35 for a BD of a $5 Dvd..Speed anyone? Most but not all buy on price and right now those price are way too high.

[LewisCamel]

what is the point in this article? This dude sounds like a bit of a knob

[sorceror]

The cnet article actually has a point (as a lot of people here and elsewhere have pointed out, unless it's a special-effects blockbuster, an upscaled DVD is just fine even on a sizeable HDTV), but it picks some weak facts to back it up. One week of sales doesn't form a trend, and considering that it's pretty well-known that newer SKUs of the PS3 are coming, I'm not shocked PS3 sales are down a bit right now.

But yeah, dropping the price of BD discs would help a lot. And downloadable, portable copies are a very good idea - they should be standard. (Heck, for players like the PS3 and others w/USB ports, there should be a copy right there on the disk that you can load onto other media.)

[urherenow]

Not with you on this one wraggs...

1) replacing your library with blueray is YOUR CHOICE. Blueray players are compatible with DVD

2) Sony has a variety of Vaio models with blueray players and blueray burners

3) DVD cannot handle uncompressed 7.1 audio

4) as you mentioned later on in your rant, the video quality difference is STUNNING on larger screens and I personally am impressed with the difference on a cheap 42" 1080i plasma screen.

5) The blueray movies I have thus far were all on sale and I got them for $23 or less. The only time I bother with DVD now is when I find a good movie for $7 or less that wouldn't make me any more excited if it were more crisp. Like the last oldie I picked up was "Real Genius"... not something that would be impressive on blueray. Iron Man? You bet your life that'll be a blueray purchase!


umnnn.... </rant>


edit: and I also have a couple of BD movies that have a digital copy included. I can use it in my PSP :P

[pibs]

Seriously I believe that BD is just too expensive for common joes right now (here in the states) Most people I have talked to do have HD tvs but are still watching standard programing and it seems like they see Hi Def as a novelty at the moment.

I do think that Digital Distribution is the future for our media but it has to be implemented in ways that common folks can purchase it without being tethered to the internet.

[jamotto]

SD is just fine for my Low Definition eyes.

[TheLostProphet]

lol @jamotto

While HD is awesome I'm in no hurry to get it, so like the dvd I'll wait for it to become mainstream before I start shelling out loads.

However, Iron Man, yessssssss.

[F9zDark]

Rather than writing an article based solely opinion why not try to find some actual proof that indicates Blu-Ray will "die"?

Wow an 8 percent drop. Hmm, can that be explained by any other means? How about the shaky US economy? Car manufacturers have reported record lows for the year thus far in comparison to last quarter and the same time last year, manufacturing has dropped significantly as well during this period and has hit a 7 year low...

Seriously, with:

1)High gas prices
2)Soaring Foreclosure rates
3)The lay off of thousands of people at many different jobs and from many different walks of life
4)An extremely weak dollar

Is this drop in sales due to "Blu-Ray tanking" because it cannot best DVD or is it simply a matter of ECONOMIC RECESSION?

Come on... If its sales were down 75% I'd seriously consider it being on its death bed (and even that we couldn't definitively say was DUE to DVD being the champ). But 8%? I'd say the companies backing Blu-Ray are quite lucky, in this harsh economic climate I'd expect people to save the money and buy DVDs rather than expensive Blu-Rays...

If anything this just proves that Blu-Ray will one day be the ruler of the movie disc media market; since just about everything else that's expensive and isn't a necessity has had sales slumps of far more than 8%...

[ANoob]

Contradictory.

It's your opinion that believing Blu-ray will succeed doesn't make sense. You fail to realize that your sentence is posted as fact. And I thought I was noob :eek:.

[F9zDark]

Contradictory.

It's your opinion that believing Blu-ray will succeed doesn't make sense. You fail to realize that your sentence is posted as fact. And I thought I was noob :eek:.

Why doesn't it make sense? DVDs do not have the capacity to hold Uncompressed, HD 7.1 surround sound, nor do they have the capacity to hold even a compressed HD, 1080p encoded movie.

When DVDs first came out they were equally expensive as Blu-Rays are now. Simply because they are expensive doesn't mean they won't sell. The same was true of CDs when they first came out as well.

The space capacity increases made them worth it. Before DVDs there were Laser Discs, which were huge "CDs" that could hold a movie. Can you imagine if DVD failed to take the marketplace against that? Needless to say we wouldn't have portable DVD players now would we?

The fact of the matter is, for a truly HD experience Blu-Ray is the only way to go, and again, considering that the sales slump was ONLY 8% I'd seriously question any sane person saying that Blu-Ray will fail to succeed.

This author wrote this article haphazardly, using this sales slump to bring forth his DVD-loving rhetoric. I guarantee you the sales slump was due to the poor economic situation the US experiencing...

[quzar]

Why doesn't it make sense? DVDs do not have the capacity to hold Uncompressed, HD 7.1 surround sound, nor do they have the capacity to hold even a compressed HD, 1080p encoded movie.

When DVDs first came out they were equally expensive as Blu-Rays are now. Simply because they are expensive doesn't mean they won't sell. The same was true of CDs when they first came out as well.

The space capacity increases made them worth it. Before DVDs there were Laser Discs, which were huge "CDs" that could hold a movie. Can you imagine if DVD failed to take the marketplace against that? Needless to say we wouldn't have portable DVD players now would we?

The fact of the matter is, for a truly HD experience Blu-Ray is the only way to go, and again, considering that the sales slump was ONLY 8% I'd seriously question any sane person saying that Blu-Ray will fail to succeed.

This author wrote this article haphazardly, using this sales slump to bring forth his DVD-loving rhetoric. I guarantee you the sales slump was due to the poor economic situation the US experiencing...

The whole issue though is that it isn't as big a difference as DVD was to VHS. In that transition we got: Smaller medium, more durable medium, non-linear playback, true pause ability, soft subtitles, multiple audio and video tracks, extra content (which was availible on VHS but combined with non-linear playback is actually useful), software interactivity on computer, simpler hardware, and higher quality, digital video and audio.

Compare that to the additions in Blu-Ray: Higher quality audio, Higher quality video, more expansive menus, simultaneous playback of multiple video streams, internet connectivity (with certain players), same physical medium but more sensitive, and MUCH more complex players.

On top of that, DVDs pretty much look better than VHS on any TV. The difference between Blu-Ray and DVD on an SD TV is much smaller.

Don't get me wrong, I love the look and sound of HD material on the giganto-vision 73in HDTV, but advocates seem to forget how huge the jump from VHS to DVD was for DVD to gain acceptance and how many formats that simply offered the same thing... but better! failed.

I see Blu-Ray as the equivilant of S-VHS and W-VHS to VHS. Better quality video, better quality audio... that's about it.