wraggster
December 1st, 2012, 00:50
Call of Duty: Black Ops II had a massive launch,generating $500 million on its first day at retail (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-11-16-black-ops-2-sales-top-USD500m-in-24-hours), but retail channel checks point to a franchise that could be on the way down, if you ask Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia.
"We believe unit sales of Call of Duty: Black Ops II are tracking down double digits year-over-year. Our checks show initial sales of CoD: Black Ops II at some retailers were down as much as 20 percent. Subsequently, it appears sales of CoD did pick up a bit over the Thanksgiving holiday. We think the current sales curve suggests CoD: Black Ops II unit sales in its first year could ultimately be down 10 percent to 15 percent year-over-year," he said.
"If we are right, this would be the second year in a row this critical franchise will have seen units decline (Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 is down an estimated 5 percent versus Call of Duty: Black Ops). We estimate CoD generates 40 percent to 45 percent of the company's EBIT on an annual basis and it goes without saying that weakness in this franchise is a cause for concern."
Bhatia noted that Microsoft's Halo 4 launch and people anticipating big sales could have affected Call of Duty's performance: "We think there are possibly three reasons for the weakness in Black Ops II: 1) We note that ratings for Black Ops II on average were slightly lower than Modern Warfare 3, which may have impacted initial sell-through; 2) Black Ops II launched only a week after Halo 4, which could have impacted its sales; and 3) Black Ops II launched only a week before Thanksgiving, which may have caused some consumers to delay purchases in anticipation of potential deals/discounts."
While Call of Duty is still the king of shooters, Bhatia points out that next year is likely to see another highly-rated Battlefield game, and EA's deal with Respawn may yield something fruitful in 2014, so Activision will be facing some stiff competition.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-11-29-call-of-duty-black-ops-ii-first-year-sales-could-be-down-15-percent
"We believe unit sales of Call of Duty: Black Ops II are tracking down double digits year-over-year. Our checks show initial sales of CoD: Black Ops II at some retailers were down as much as 20 percent. Subsequently, it appears sales of CoD did pick up a bit over the Thanksgiving holiday. We think the current sales curve suggests CoD: Black Ops II unit sales in its first year could ultimately be down 10 percent to 15 percent year-over-year," he said.
"If we are right, this would be the second year in a row this critical franchise will have seen units decline (Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 is down an estimated 5 percent versus Call of Duty: Black Ops). We estimate CoD generates 40 percent to 45 percent of the company's EBIT on an annual basis and it goes without saying that weakness in this franchise is a cause for concern."
Bhatia noted that Microsoft's Halo 4 launch and people anticipating big sales could have affected Call of Duty's performance: "We think there are possibly three reasons for the weakness in Black Ops II: 1) We note that ratings for Black Ops II on average were slightly lower than Modern Warfare 3, which may have impacted initial sell-through; 2) Black Ops II launched only a week after Halo 4, which could have impacted its sales; and 3) Black Ops II launched only a week before Thanksgiving, which may have caused some consumers to delay purchases in anticipation of potential deals/discounts."
While Call of Duty is still the king of shooters, Bhatia points out that next year is likely to see another highly-rated Battlefield game, and EA's deal with Respawn may yield something fruitful in 2014, so Activision will be facing some stiff competition.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-11-29-call-of-duty-black-ops-ii-first-year-sales-could-be-down-15-percent