Blu-ray is winning the DVD format war, says Sony

[wraggster]

Sony has declared that Blu-ray is already winning the next-gen DVD format war, with discs outselling HD-DVD by a ratio of more than two to one.

The company is quoting a report by consumer research firm Nielsen VideoScan which states that Blu-ray is winning in the cumulative sales stakes. During the first week of January, 47.14 HD-DVD movie discs were sold in the US for every 100 Blu-ray films shifted.

During the second week that ratio increased even further, with 38.36 HD-DVD titles sold per 100 Blu-ray discs.

Sony has also announced the results of an online survey in which 100,000 PlayStation 3 owners took part. In total, 90 per cent said they had watched a Blu-ray film on their console, and 80 per cent said they planned to buy more movies in the future. In addition, per cent said they intended to rent Blu-ray films.

Many games industry analysts have predicted that the battle between Blu-ray and the Toshiba-backed HD-DVD format will be key to determining who wins the battle of the next-gen consoles.

Last year, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter observed that Sony would have an "insurmountable advantage" over Microsoft if movie studios adopt Blu-ray as the standard.

Microsoft released a HD-DVD player for Xbox 360 in the US last November. According to NPD data around 42,000 units were purchased during its first month on sale, rising to 50,000 in December.

via gibiz (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=22588)

[Tree]

Microsoft released a HD-DVD player for Xbox 360 in the US last November. According to NPD data around 42,000 units were purchased during its first month on sale, rising to 50,000 in December.

via gibiz (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=22588)

one sec so if i buy a XBOX 360 i get a HD player ? or is it a addon ?

not like im intrested in buy a 360 i just never herd it had a HD player :S

[slappy1]

Lets not jump the gun here. HD-DVD has been in the marketplace way before Blue-Ray has. Some of these 'stellar' sales of BD movies can be attributed to Blue-Ray player (aka PS3) owners playing catch with HD-DVD owners already established movie collections. I think we need to play wait and see.

[Uchiha Sasuke]

Bah who cares whos winning out of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. They'll both be old media next year when Ultra-Ray and UHD-DVD (Uber High Def) comes out.....technology moves and changes so fast its scary.

[irongiant]

This was inevitable, HD-DVD is a dead dog.. MS have already admitted they will switch to Blu Ray if they have to. When the PS3 launches in Europe Blu Ray movies will see another spike in sales and also when Disney release their movies on Blu Ray, the pixar movies will look unbelievable on HD.

Be interesting to see how well Casino Royale sells on Blu Ray when it's released, in fact come on Sony why not bundle it with the PS3 in europe?

[ElRazur]

one sec so if i buy a XBOX 360 i get a HD player ? or is it a addon ?

not like im intrested in buy a 360 i just never herd it had a HD player :S

Add on. Cost about 150 or so...(english pounds)

[irongiant]

Nothing more needs to be said than this article from the highly respected Bill Hunt..

"In other high-def news, we've got the first reports on actual unit software sales numbers, though the numbers come from Sony Computer Entertainment America (which has an obvious bias). Next Generation magazine has reported Sony's claim that 439,000 Blu-ray movie discs have sold in the U.S., while 438,000 HD-DVDs have sold. We believe these numbers are format to date. It will be interesting to see if any third party tracking companies release unit sales numbers to confirm Sony's claims. Still, they don't seem out of line with the data we've seen from Nielsen VideoScan recently.

Meanwhile, Newsweek magazine has posted an interesting story recently that has relevance to the HD format war. The piece indicates that the adult film industry is in the middle of its worst software sales slump in years, in part impacted by the sheer volume of free adult content available online. That would stand in sharp contrast to the notion that the adult industry is powerful enough to influence the HD-DVD/Blu-ray format war. In fact, despite the free content that's already online, industry analysts see the most profitable part of the porn market moving from DVD directly to the Internet... bypassing HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc entirely. Several adult producers have told us here at The Bits that the ultimate goal is to deliver high-definition adult content directly to computers and DVRs via broadband, without any physical media involved.

Here's yet another major HD story, and it's breaking news: A hacker or hackers on the Doom9 forums are reporting that they've actually managed to discover the so-called "processing key" that allows them to circumvent the AACS DRM protection on ALL HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc software. Naturally, the AACS Licensing Administrator is "investigating the claims." This could end up being a MAJOR story, so we'll watch how it develops. Reminds me of a classic Scotty quote from one of the Trek films: "The more they over think the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain." You can read more here at InfoWorld and here at engadget.

Finally today, I'm tickled to learn that I'm not the only media analyst that's earned the ire of a select group of... shall we say, passionate?... early adopters on the Net. CNet executive editor David Carnoy has apparently been flamed too by HD-DVD enthusiasts online for daring to suggest that HD-DVD may not have a rosy future. You can read his amusing editorial reaction here.

You know, the funny thing about all this is that I really like both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc just as video formats. They both deliver fantastic quality and features. But technically and quality-wise, this format war is basically a wash. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that if this battle is going to be decided by anything, it will be other factors. Like which studios support each format, which manufacturers support each format, what the software and hardware sales trends are, etc. And in each of those areas, Blu-ray has developed a clear edge.

Let's look at these simple facts: Of the 12 major and mini-major Hollywood studios (Fox, Disney, MGM, Sony, Lionsgate, Paramount, New Line, HBO, Warner Bros, Universal, DreamWorks and The Weinstein Company) 9 support Blu-ray, 5 of them exclusively. Only 6 support HD-DVD, just 2 of them exclusively (one studio, DreamWorks, remains uncommitted). Not counting computer hardware or budget brands, Blu-ray Disc has 9 major set-top hardware manufacturers behind it (Sony, Pioneer, Samsung, Philips, Panasonic, LG, Mitsubishi, Thomson, Sharp), while HD-DVD boasts just two (Toshiba and now LG). HD-DVD is an add-on to Microsoft's Xbox 360, while Blu-ray is built into EVERY Sony PlayStation 3. Nielsen VideoScan is reporting that in software sales, Blu-ray has virtually erased the sales lead enjoyed by HD-DVD since the formats were launched, and is now outselling HD-DVD by a 2 to 1 (and growing) margin.

I can understand that some people just love HD-DVD and have had great experiences with it. We have too. I understand that some people hate Sony for perceived corporate arrogance. I'm not a big fan of their tactics either, particularly how they went around the DVD Forum to develop their format. But let's face it - the biggest corporate cheerleader for HD-DVD seems to be Microsoft, which isn't exactly comforting either. All of those issues aside, however, how do you argue with the facts that are clearly becoming obvious - namely, ALL those things I just mentioned above? Frankly, the best sales pitch the HD-DVD camp seems to be able to make right now is: "Hey, we've got DVD right in the name! Plus cheap off-brand players are on the way! And porn!" I guess I have to be the guy who states the obvious, but doesn't that seem a little odd to anyone?

The cheap players thing is worth addressing here. The reality is, price sensitivity isn't an issue in the first year or so of any new format. It's mostly just the early adopters who are interested at that point anyway. By the time a wider consumer base is starting to get interested, 2nd and 3rd generation players have entered the market and they're inevitably cheaper. What surprised me most at CES is just how aggressively the HD-DVD camp seems to be trying to drive their format's hardware prices as low as possible by bringing off-brand Asian manufactures into their fold. The arrival of ultra-cheap $100 and $50 players in the DVD industry is what spelled the end of DVD hardware profitability for the major CE manufacturers. So why INVITE this situation before your format is even a year old? It makes no business sense that I can see, unless it's a desperation play - a last ditch effort not to lose.

I've also heard people cite universal players as the answer to having two formats. But the problem with universal players is that while they make life easier for early adopters, they do nothing to clear up the mass consumer (or mainstream media) perception of a format war, so those folks still remain on the sidelines. In addition to that, universal players tend to cost more, which again doesn't affect early adopters that much but is one more strike against adoption by consumers at large, who are price sensitive.

As for porn... I've addressed that issue in the past, and you saw the Newsweek story posted above. Unlike the situation back in the days of VHS versus Betamax, cheap porn is already available everywhere on DVD and online. Porn is not going to decide this format war.

As I've said before, I like both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc. They're both great - they both deliver the goods. But there just isn't room for TWO great formats. And at this point, I just don't see any likely circumstance in which HD-DVD can evolve into a viable mass market consumer video format. I certainly can't recommend in good conscience that Bits readers commit to HD-DVD right now. I tell most readers who ask me about the format war to just stick with DVD, and wait until it's all over. But if they're prepared to risk their money now, and are eager to do so, I have to tell them that Blu-ray is the better bet.

Frankly, I wish this format war had never happened. I am SO sick and tired of endlessly debating the merits of one of these formats versus the other. I'm tired of talking to reps for studios that are sitting on the fence or straddling both formats, who gamely spout the diplomatic company line about how great both formats are on the record, but off the record tell you how sick they all are of the situation and how much more hassle and headache it's caused them having to support THREE formats (including standard DVD). And I'm tired of watching early adopters backbiting each other at every turn. I'd rather just be talking about all the great films being released on disc in high-definition. I truly don't care which format wins, as long as one wins. But as long as there are two competing formats, we ALL lose. Period. The home video industry is not like videogaming. People do not have the patience for two or even three separate formats. They want to go to the store, buy a disc and know that it's going to work when they get home. It's that simple. They don't want to have to worry about having to buy the red box, or the blue box... or even the red AND blue box.

I'd hate for the high-definition video format war to have the same outcome as the high-resolution audio format war did. DVD-Audio versus SACD ended in a stalemate, and most people just stuck with CDs or moved to MP3 downloads. But mark my words, if the HD-DVD/Blu-ray war lingers on, that's exactly where we're headed. All you enthusiasts that have trenched in to support your particular format of choice come hell or high water had better enjoy the movies you're getting now, because if both formats fizzle out, forget about ever getting deep catalog, or older classics that cost money to restore for HD - money that would have come from software sales that aren't happening because too many people stubbornly stuck to their guns and the format war dragged out until nobody cared anymore. I think Stephen Colbert said it best when predicting the future of the HD format war: "The winner will be the one you DON'T buy." There could be a lot more "truthiness" in that statement than some want to believe.

For the good of the video industry as a whole, and for the benefit of film fans everywhere, this format war needs to end and SOON. So how long do we all have to wait before we start acknowledging the elephant in the room: One of these formats is already winning... and, for better or worse, it isn't HD-DVD.

Stay tuned...

Bill Hunt, Editor
The Digital Bits "

[JKKDARK]

stupid Blu-ray. Even the PS3 only sold 1.5 millions units.

[J_Villa1983]

I'm just going to stick with DVD.. I really have no reason to go out and buy a next-gen DVD player as anything that I feel is worth watching is already available on DVD.

This paragraph stated above really misses a fine point:
------------------------------------------------------------
The cheap players thing is worth addressing here. The reality is, price sensitivity isn't an issue in the first year or so of any new format. It's mostly just the early adopters who are interested at that point anyway. By the time a wider consumer base is starting to get interested, 2nd and 3rd generation players have entered the market and they're inevitably cheaper. What surprised me most at CES is just how aggressively the HD-DVD camp seems to be trying to drive their format's hardware prices as low as possible by bringing off-brand Asian manufactures into their fold. The arrival of ultra-cheap $100 and $50 players in the DVD industry is what spelled the end of DVD hardware profitability for the major CE manufacturers. So why INVITE this situation before your format is even a year old? It makes no business sense that I can see, unless it's a desperation play - a last ditch effort not to lose.


----------------------------------------------------

I dont see this as a last ditched effort to loose, I see it as a way to win.. and heres why.
History has shown that in technoligy, cheaper technoligy will always beat out high priced better counterparts. For instance the Apple Macintosh was for awhile superior to the IBM PC. but what really crushed apple was that many clones could be made that would still be compatible and run the same operating system. So.. I think this is the same as whats happening here. If we started getting cheap HD-DVD players for the home that produced equal quality to something that was offered for 200-300 dollars I believe that it would have an edge. Remember VHS vs Betamax? one was cheaper and the other had better quality.. remember which one that won?

History will repeat itself and I think when people are ready to make a switch.. they will at the cheapet price to them. I personally believe that next-gen format will be streaming from the internet and storing movies on a hard drive.. like a tivo or the iTv. No format costs.. its decently accessible and with the size of harddrives greater than 300 gigs being as affordible as they are.. its feasible too.

But.. who listens to me, I still play my Dreamcast religiously and watch DVD's, so i'm still living in the stone age.

-JV

[AvengedSevenfold Fan]

i really dont like the fact that there are 1 types of next gen dvd players out. i would stick with HD DVD only because the players are so much less expensive.

[F9zDark]

one sec so if i buy a XBOX 360 i get a HD player ? or is it a addon ?

not like im intrested in buy a 360 i just never herd it had a HD player :S

No you need to pay 200 USD for it.


BluRay outselling HD-DVD more than 2:1? Looks like this battle has been decided. And with the PS3 launch in Europe coming, its only inevitable that BluRay will win.

Lets also look at it like this, considering consoles ONLY, BluRay has well over 1.5 million user base. HD-DVD, has only 50,000. With the European launch, which supposedly there are to be 3 million units ready for such, assuming they all sell thats a 4.5 million BluRay user base.

Really people, anyone thinking that HD-DVD even has a chance is just fooling themselves. Cold hard economics have clearly indicated that Bluray will win out.

[Shrygue]

I agree that Blue Ray will win.

[irongiant]

I'm just going to stick with DVD.. I really have no reason to go out and buy a next-gen DVD player as anything that I feel is worth watching is already available on DVD.

This paragraph stated above really misses a fine point:
------------------------------------------------------------
The cheap players thing is worth addressing here. The reality is, price sensitivity isn't an issue in the first year or so of any new format. It's mostly just the early adopters who are interested at that point anyway. By the time a wider consumer base is starting to get interested, 2nd and 3rd generation players have entered the market and they're inevitably cheaper. What surprised me most at CES is just how aggressively the HD-DVD camp seems to be trying to drive their format's hardware prices as low as possible by bringing off-brand Asian manufactures into their fold. The arrival of ultra-cheap $100 and $50 players in the DVD industry is what spelled the end of DVD hardware profitability for the major CE manufacturers. So why INVITE this situation before your format is even a year old? It makes no business sense that I can see, unless it's a desperation play - a last ditch effort not to lose.


----------------------------------------------------

I dont see this as a last ditched effort to loose, I see it as a way to win.. and heres why.
History has shown that in technoligy, cheaper technoligy will always beat out high priced better counterparts. For instance the Apple Macintosh was for awhile superior to the IBM PC. but what really crushed apple was that many clones could be made that would still be compatible and run the same operating system. So.. I think this is the same as whats happening here. If we started getting cheap HD-DVD players for the home that produced equal quality to something that was offered for 200-300 dollars I believe that it would have an edge. Remember VHS vs Betamax? one was cheaper and the other had better quality.. remember which one that won?

History will repeat itself and I think when people are ready to make a switch.. they will at the cheapet price to them. I personally believe that next-gen format will be streaming from the internet and storing movies on a hard drive.. like a tivo or the iTv. No format costs.. its decently accessible and with the size of harddrives greater than 300 gigs being as affordible as they are.. its feasible too.

But.. who listens to me, I still play my Dreamcast religiously and watch DVD's, so i'm still living in the stone age.

-JV

You're forgetting one obvious fact, Blu Ray players can and will also come down in price. Added to that the massive factor of the PS3, over the next 5 years or so of it's lifespan the PS3 will gradually be reduced in price as happens with a console. So there's a constant supply of Blu Ray players to market that gamers and HDTV owners will be snapping up. Blu Ray will only continue to grow, look on the bright side though.. the HD DVD add on will become a collectors item in years to come! ;)

[F9zDark]

And whats more interesting is that a website reported that the PS3 was in fact the best BluRay player on the market; with fewer problems and issues than other BluRay movie players when it comes to playing movies.

So not only do PS3 owners get a BluRay player, but they get the best one out so far.

[Pumped'Up]

If anything, having the 2 formats did nothing but hurt the consumers and the format consortium members themselves. I agree, BD is clearly the winning format. HD-DVD just doesn't have the studio support for it to even survive much longer.