Swanni's 2008 Predictions: Blu-ray vs. HD DVD

[wraggster]

Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, has been making predictions about TV technology issues for several years with an incredible rate of success.
For instance, Swanni was the first to say Voom's satellite TV service would fail; that Apple TV would be a bust; and that Interactive TV programs would never reach a mass audience in the United States.

With 750,000 HD DVD players and nearly 3 million Blu-ray players in homes, many analysts say both high-def disc formats will stay in business in 2008 and the years beyond. But Swann predicts that the Blu-ray forces, led by Sony and HD DVD's backers, led by Toshiba and Microsoft, will reach a compromise on a single format next year. He says the studios will push for a single format because most consumers will not buy high-def DVD players if there are two formats.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/swannitwo120507.htm

[gamer456]

I agree, with 2 formats to choose from, its not going to take off as quick as dvd did

[bah]

Its not just that, its the fact that VHS to DVD was a huge change:

VHS had static even on original, straight out of the box, purchased films that got worse with each use. DVDs were higher quality to begin with and didn't degrade.

Films used to take ages to get released on VHS, even then they seemed to go to video stores (who paid hugely inflated prices for copies), then perhaps a public VHS release much later. DVDs come out really soon after they finish at the movies now. TV shows that were never released on VHS are out on DVD, even really dam old ones no one would have previously bothered with.

You can skip via chapters, fast forward insanely fast, have mulitple audio tracks for languages/commentary, can turn subtitles on or off and change the language etc. No rewinding before you can play it again. Remember when video stores tried to charge you extra if you forgot?

Where as DVD to HD-DVD/Blu-Ray you have:

An (huge, profitable) already established DVD market. DVDs still look pretty damn decent and are everywhere.

There's nothing really new on offer besides higher definition, and the vast majority of people don't own HD TVs. Even less own true-HD sets (although most wouldn't know it, the salesman said it was HD).

I would say the explosion of DVDs popularity came when the players got dirt cheap. These new players are a lot more expensive and average people (non videophiles), don't see it as worth it yet.

All the 'cool new features' DVD over VHS had besides better quality were motivating factors in a quick uptake too. The 'format war' only slows it further, as people want to 'pick the winner' and not waste cash, which is fair enough.

EDIT: The BS about some blu-ray players not having all the functionality of the 'final blu-day standard' is totally pathetic. These are not general purpose computers, this is watching a movie on your TV. The whole benefit of specifically tasked home electronic devices is to make life simple and uncomplicated when you just want to sit down and watch something. You shouldn't have to think about player-compliance and shit like HDCP.

Also, wasn't the movie studios initial reluctance to release stuff on VHS/beta that they couldn't tell how many people would be watching the tape (ie a family pays the same to rent a movie and all watch as a single person does).
I think that transformers wanker may be on to something, but misdirected at M$ solely.

Turn people off physical media via incompatible formats etc, then next generation: MPAA-approved digital download service. Pay per play. Hell, chuck in a webcam n count the nb of eyes watching the screen.
*wife walks into room* "Honey, don't look at the!!...... " *K-ching* "Aww crap, another $7"

Cherish your physical media that don't require activation. Its not about the tech, its about the money. :)

[mugcup]

Yes I believe DVD will going to rock the work for maybe 5-10 years. Blu-Rays are not that much of favorite here in Turkey. But I think it will be in near future. Still, my fav. is DVD.