Who could have predicted that 77 million PlayStation Network accounts would have been compromised last April? Who could have known that 3DS would at first struggle, then fly? Who could have guessed what the Wii U would be? Why, an analyst of course!
These future-gazing mystics are paid to try to discern the future from their money-shaped tea leaves. They weigh in on hot topics, declare the fate of companies; they watch, they listen, they never sleep. Who better to peer into the shrouded year ahead and tell Eurogamer what to expect?
Introducing: Jesse Divination! Michael Predicter! Peers Harding-Rolls! And Nicholas Lovesalloutcomes!
OK, back to reality. Michael Pachter analyses for investment firm Wedbush Morgan; Jesse Divnich analyses for research company EEDAR; Piers Harding-Rolls analyses for media research company Screen Digest; and Nicholas Lovell founded respected games business blog Gamesbrief.
Tell us of consoles in 2012
"The Wii U is the big story of the year," prophesied Pachter, "but without knowing specs, price-point and the level of software support, it's hard to predict how it will do. My bias is that it's not significantly more powerful than the current HD consoles, its price-point will not be significantly lower, and software support will be light.
"If I'm right, it will probably have a lukewarm reception at launch."
Michael Predicter.
Harding-Rolls' hunch read: "At this stage, and until we have concrete intelligence on pricing and content for the Wii U, we do not expect Nintendo's next generation console to generate as much interest as the ground-breaking Wii.
"My own view is that the Wii U's product message is more complex and, as a result, will not engage with as wide an audience as the Wii."
"I don't think we'll see anything from Microsoft other than a bigger hard-drive and a lower price-point," Pachter pursued, "and I don't think we'll see anything from Sony at all. The Apple console is probably a 2013 event, so nothing to look forward to this year other than price cuts.
"With that said, Microsoft has a lot of room to cut price (they could probably make money at $199 for a 250GB Xbox 360 with Kinect bundle), so that will be the biggest driver of console sales this year."
Divnich divined: "I wouldn't expect any new hardware announcements from Sony or Microsoft. Both the PS3 and Xbox 360 continue to drive substantial profits for the third parties, and given our industry's historical inability to transition between hardware cycles profitably, I don't think the third-parties are quite yet ready to face a new hardware cycle."
"I don't expect a new Xbox to be launched in 2012," Harding-Rolls ran on. "Our expectation remains 2013, but with information on a new Microsoft console hitting the market this year.
"We're currently forecasting 2012 declines in hardware sales for Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii on a global basis."
Tell us of portable gaming in 2012
"[PlayStation] Vita will struggle," reckoned Lovell. "The key question will not be whether it sells some initial units, but how it does for software tie-ins, and whether its appeal stretches beyond core Sony fans."
Presaged Pachter: "Sony's PS Vita appears aimed at the hardcore gamer, and will likely have limited success because of a relatively small addressable market.
Jesse Divination.
"The 3DS has broader appeal (both casual and hardcore), but the price-points for casual games are not particularly compelling when measured against $9.99, $4.99, $0.99 and free smartphone games. And the quality of games like Infinity Blade and Dead Space makes the smartphone competitive among even the hardcore.
"I see modest sales for 3DS, good enough to be profitable for Nintendo, but not good enough to offset the inevitable decline in DS hardware and software sales."
Recited Harding-Rolls: "Continued momentum of the 3DS in the first half of 2012 will help decide its future at least with regards to third-party support. If momentum stalls, I fear third-parties will continue to look elsewhere for investment opportunities.
"I expect Vita to get away relatively strongly at launch because of its strong content line-up but, like the 3DS, may suffer due to pricing after the initial rush has subsided. I expect Sony to be reluctant to make any significant pricing move, outside of value bundles, until at least 2013."
"It's true that the sandbox for dedicated portable gaming devices has shrunk as mobile and tablet technology increases its market penetration," Divnich divulged.
"But I believe the market for dedicated portable gaming devices is still large enough to support two competitors - 3DS and Vita. And it is certainly large enough to support healthy profits from the third-party publishers that support them."
Peers Harding-Rolls.
"Without question," pressed Pachter, "the biggest-selling portable gaming device will be the smartphone. The number of gaming apps for iOS and Android is increasing exponentially, and although many are free-to-play, the mobile games sector should still see greater revenue growth than any other."
"Tablets will fly and fly," Lovell harmonised, "although price-points need to fall. The Kindle Fire is interesting, but I am not yet ready to predict that it will be a success.
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