GTA worth $900 million; look to PSP for future of franchise

Source - Joystiq

<blockquote>Research analysts Jason Kraft and Chris Kwak have determined an answer to the question, "What's Grand Theft Auto worth?" Parent-company Take-Two has been rocked by some troubles of late. With rumors that the company is for sale, and that Elevation Partners is browsing around, the question has been on a lot of minds lately--ours included.

First, they anticipate only two next-gen GTA games hitting the consoles in the next five years, versus the three current-gen titles. In the same period, they say "there is potential for up to six PSP titles (five, post Liberty City Stories) over the next five years," continuing, "Take-Two could develop unique PSP games between major next-gen console releases or ports of existing titles. Shorter development cycles on PSP enable Take-Two to release PSP titles more frequently. The regularity with which Take-Two releases GTA titles on PSP will be critical to the franchise’s revenue growth in the next-gen cycle and underlies our revenue growth forecast."

They also suspect console releases will either be released on multiple platforms, to capitalize on the larger install-base, or console exclusivity would place Take-Two "in a position to demand cash in return... in either scenario, Take-Two wins." They conclude that the Grand Theft Auto franchise is currently worth about $900 million, or $10-$13 per share. Removing the $1.52 per share of cash reserves, the remainder of Take-Two is worth $1.71-$4.71 per share. Those numbers show GTA as being worth 62%-81% of the company's total value! Will potential buyers be wary of placing all their eggs in the GTA basket?</blockquote>

GTA has been fun, although it hasn't really changed too much since the first GTA3. Sure, they've added some missing stuff that should have been in the first version, such as the ability to jump out of a moving car and ride motorcycles. And they tacked on some new missions, but those boil down to just doing the same thing in different ways. You race around town, either pick up something, blow it up, or whatever, and move on to the next thing within the allotted time limit. The weapons are still pretty much the same, knifes, pistols, machinegun, sniper, rocket launching thingy, and some stuff you can throw. Nothing really new there, just different names and firing rates.

GTA will get a shot of much needed adrenaline if they can release a far more modern and graphically impressive environment, fit for the Next Gen consoles. But after the eye candy wears off, it will still just be GTA. That's not a bad thing, I'd probably buy a copy. But not too many more. They're just running out of stuff for people to do. The most new and exciting things I've done in GTA:LC center around the GTA game hack. Plowing through semi-trucks on a rocket-fast motorcycle has proven to be infinite fun!

If I had the ear of the GTA development group, I'd ask them to consider some more radical changes:

#1. Super Powers? Thowing Cars. Swinging around the City. Body Snatching. Ect. (Was fun in Spiderman and the Hulk...) Give us up-grades, super-Powerups, cybernetics, something!

#2. The ability to Rob buildings? Rob banks, convenience stores, something more complicated then just beating a hooker and grabbing the magic money that falls out. Every building should have some level of interaction, not just as a wall to drive around. We don't need to see the inside of the building, just watch the player enter, and switch it over to some kind of mini-game related to the business or homes you are robbing.

#3. The ability to create your very own criminal empire. Run protection schemes on shop owners. Recruit gang members that aren't just mindless cannon fodder. Bribe cops. Buy buildings (other then safehouses). The ability to run parts of the game like a Strategy game, using 2D maps and controls. Something more then just running around the shooting people.

#4. Some SERIOUS game AI. Right now all badguys, goodguys, and bystanders are about as dumb as tree stumps. Bystanders never hit the ground or dive into alley ways. Most badguys never try to find cover. Sometimes they do, but not very often. Mostly they just stand there like Robotic Rambos trying to gun you down.

#5. Why don't we see people calling for help? If you shoot a cop, you just magically get 2-stars. If you shoot at random people, the cops just magically start looking for you. Why don't we see the cop's using their radios? Or people calling on their cellphones? This would give the player the chance to avoid detection by killing the person making the call. Likewise, gang members could call in other gang members if they get to shot up. Why are cops the only ones capable of calling for help? Mobsters and Thugs should be able to show the Love too. "Yo, Hommie! Where you at?!"

GTA has alot going for it, but really, the game is still pretty much where it started with GTA3. Most of the gamespace is just random cars, random people, and empty wall-like houses. They could make all of those useless houses and buildings into something interesting with a little forethought. Otherwise, the game just feels entire too plastic and artificial. It's like the game is %30 interactive now. Unless they open it up some more, they aren't going to be able to hold on to their fans for too much longer.

I agree with a lot of your points except #1 seems a little weird for the style of the game. Nice suggestions, though. Now only if Rockstar read this...haha.