Red Dead Redemption could sell 4m in first year

Rockstar's Red Dead Redemption could sell 4 million units worldwide in its first year on sale, according to Doug Creutz of Cowan and Company.

The analyst has upped his estimates from 2.2 million after strong consumer interest, but also pointed out that a third title in the series might not be released for a considerable time after.

"Red Dead has been perched at the top of the online retailer best seller lists for several weeks now, and we believe it is poised for breakout success," he said in a note to investors. "Although this positions Red Dead to be another core franchise for Take-Two, given the time between Rockstar franchise iterations, it is possible we might not see another Red Dead title until the next console cycle."

However, Creutz was concerned that Take-Two's other big releases for this year, Max Payne 3 and LA Noire, have not been given solid release dates and may miss this financial year.

"Silence on Max Payne 3, LA Noire is deafening. With just over five months until the end of Take-Two’s FY10, there has been little to no indication that either title is ready for launch.

"Although Rockstar is presumably busy focusing on the Red Dead launch and could make announcements about release dates at E3, we are concerned that both titles could miss the FY10 window," he said.

Red Dead Redemption is released in the US tomorrow and in Europe this Friday.

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