TGS: Wii For The Win?

So-called experts and analysts can't keep from piping up about who is going to 'win' the new/next generation console war. We reported yesterday that Business Week revealed analysts' predictions of worldwide sales of 71 Million PS3s and 40 million Wii's by 2011.

Hang on a second though. Today's two-penneth from some more 'enlightened industry watchers' suggests otherwise. And when one of these industry watchers turns out to be Hirokazu Hamamura, president of Enterbrain, the publisher of Japan's leading gaming magazine Famitsu, then SPOnG's ears are a-waggin'

Speaking at a news conference at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan in Tokyo on Thursday, Hamamura stressed that the Wii-mote's intuitive handling is likely to allow Nintendo to attract people that have never played on a games console before, noting that "if one member of a family is a gaming fan, others in the family will be easily drawn into trying out computer games." Which is of course the overriding message we've been hearing from Nintendo for the best part of the last year.

Hamamura continued, "I believe there will be big sales (for the Wii) from the very beginning. I feel this growth will slow a little from the third year, but altogether the sales will exceed 10 million units," he said, basing his assertions on figures from an Enterbrain survey of 2,500 Japanese gamers.

Speaking about the PlayStation 3, Hamamura noted that: "The impressive feature with the PlayStation 3 is the outstanding graphics and outstanding price... Brand image [for the PlayStation 3] is very high, and half the people we surveyed said they wanted one, but when we ask if they will buy one many say that it's too expensive and that they'll wait until the price drops."

Enterbrain estimates that the PlayStation 3 should sell at about half the rate of the PlayStation 2, predicting a price cut and a new Final Fantasy game late 2007 to attract more buyers. The publisher also predicts total Japanese PS3 sales of between 9 million and 10 million consoles by 2010.

What of the beleagured Xbox 360 in Japan? Enterbrain's survey suggest it will continue to lag behind in the next four years, with a paltry 1-2 million units sold in the country by 2010.

"It looks like Nintendo is giving everything they possibly can for the Wii console," said Hiroshi Kamide, director of the research department at KBC Securities Japan, who also spoke at the correspondents' club. "Nintendo hasn't had a successful machine for the last 10 years, so for us analysts it's quite difficult to imagine a scenario by where Nintendo is actually going to win. But for me right now, especially in Japan at least, Nintendo does seem to have the upper hand.

"It doesn't look completely unrealistic that Nintendo could get the dominant market share this time round," Kamide added.