'Consoles to die in 5 to 10 years', says ex-Microsoft man

via Computer and Video Games


Former Vice President of Xbox Europe Sandy Duncan has cast his doubts on the long term future of the console market, claiming consoles as we know them will die out with a decade.

Speaking in an interview, he said: "There is a definite convergence of other devices, such as set top boxes. There's hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360, for example.

"In fact in 5 to 10 years I don't think you'll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be virtualized as web services by your content provider."

We think he means you'll stream data from a server or PC straight to your telly, so technically they'll still be a box involved somewhere - it just won't be a console as we know it.

Whilst Duncan has a vested interest seeing digital distribution channels open up (he now runs a casual games company), his comments match those of Analyst Billy Pidgeon, who earlier on in the week debated whether the PlayStation 3 would be the last console we'd ever see.

Which, if nothing else, would validate Sony's claim that the PlayStation 3 would have a lifecycle of at least ten years.

i think the selling point of he whole console thing is the whole budget thing because it costs a hell of a lot more to buy a pc with the same specs as the xbox 360. I also find that pc's are a bit less stable and more prone to system failure and crashes (if you dont count the 360 of course haha)

I don't believe this story. I'm sure consoles will never die in the next decades.

He's right. Let's use personal media players as an example. The Walkman (cassete tapes) was killed by the portable CD player which was it'self de throned by the MP3 player. In this instance we see the data hosted by these devices converted to binary allowing for greater storage. Consoles don't generate revenue, software does. Console manufacturers know that thier business model is dying and are milking it for everything they can. I think this guy is right on the money.

Hahahahah!!!

Not sure of the timescale, but it is a complex business. There have been huge peaks and troughs in what is still an industry less than 40 years old. Some of you may remember the huge slump in the early 80's when it looked like videogames were dead in the water.

To be honest I could care less about the console hardware. It is the software (and the user-interface hardware) that I get excited about.

I'm not convinced I'm ready to "rent" my games though. Same with my music. I like having a CD in my hands. I can put it in my car, rip it to my MP3 player, put it in my wife's car, rip it to her phone, put it on my laptop etc. I have never downloaded music for myself, but when I did for someone as a gift, the whole process felt awful - the DRM made me feel like I was commiting a crime or something.

Putting those kinds of restrictions on games would kill it for me. That, and any kind of interruption to the immediacy of play - having to wait to download a title would put me right off. That's why I use my DS more than any of my consoles. I can be playing a game in seconds, then just turn it off.

The final "question mark" comes from the very nature of "casual games". I love them on my DS, and they really seem to fit. But on my consoles I want to be blown away - I want a visual feast and gameplay to suck my entire day out of me. Compromise, for the sake of homogeneity (sp?) would be a leap backwards.

However, I would be in favour of a single console format. Sadly the taste of MSX, let alone 3DO, is still sour!

It could be true soon all these computers we are using will be upgraded to a better specification than the any consle and will be able to play pratically any game we want.

But consoles like wii and handles like NDS and PSP will last longer than that due thier uniqueness like the Wiis motion sensors and stuff (Which can be done on the computer but not really done for gaming on the computer) and the portabilty of handhelds.

But all i am really saying what Duncan said could be true.

Consoles and the internet have a lot in common. They're both just a fad.

one big problem for most of us is that if we were to receive our games and so on through a virtual network hooked up to a box under out tv is how on earth can we still make and use homebrew?

This is a major problem and one im sure will slow down or even halt the process described above, that and the fact as said above people like things to be theres )in there hands).

Or so i think anyway :-)

paul

Oh hell no! SO this guy is telling me that in the near future I'm going to have to rely on my greedy cable company to allow for "services" to be provided? What's the monthly rate going to be on that?

NO NO NO! Bad idea. If that ever happens I'll be a less avid gamer. I'll hook up an old NES, Super NES, etc. and reminisce about the glory days wondering what the hell went wrong.

I've worked for cable companies and broadband providers and believe me when I tell you this from an insiders point of view. They don't give a damn about you and will try and rip you off almost any chance they get.

Unless my content provider ends up being NINTENDO FiOps or something, to hell with this.

Bullshit, it won't happen... know why? Because of console generations changing to become more powerful and add more features and refine old ones... In other words, hardware will have to change and grow every cycle if you want games to get better and better. And that requires another completely rebuilt box to accomodate new hardware technology.

What he could mean though is that pretty soon instead of having DVD players, music, cable and gaming boxes separately, it'll all conform to a single box that does it all so there's less space to take up. But if you want to progress, then it means changing the underlying hardware, which means get another box. People like consoles because of the convenience, noone wil settle for some kind of PC thing that you need to keep updating to get the latest. Buying a new console in 10 years sounds resonable to me.

This is fantastic! someone from Micsrosoft telling us how things are going to be played out in the future, oh sorry an X employee of microsoft none the less...

I think as usual "they" have it all wrong, perhaps what he meant to say was that soon consoles will not merely be consoles but rather mulimedia device streaming who knows what to our TV's, this I can believe but consoles being killed off I can't! the thing is console gaming is getting bigger and bigger, hell we just had a "next format" war that was won by the PS3!!!! A console decided the future of our video needs! Only someone from Micrsoft would see this as the end of the console market!

I long for the day when I can post comments on a forum from my PS3/Xbox360 as I did this one... hehe ;)

that is just a bunch of BS, cus a lot of the "hardcore gamers" would just stop playing a game cus it feels better to have a physical copy of the game rather than having an account on a site or whatever and download the games, and even worse the site could just stop working if you have to stream the games.

and what about those who can't afford that kind of broadband, streaming really eats up your bandwidth - and fast too, nonononono, i don't want all software, i want hardware consoles cus then you can play offline too, take my console with me on my vacation or something, you can't do that with streaming services..

that guy don't know what he's talking about!, he's an idiot..

.. Okay, let's say maybe in the year 2040-ish, perhaps, something familiar to this would happen.

I'm sure the technology leap won't be that great in a decade. And even so, it would get rid of all convenience. I mean, you'd have to have wifi to play games, which means if you don't play at home there would have to be internet where you DO play, which screws portability-

I mean, come on.

To be blunt, I just believe he is a delusional man, used to the new innovations in computers. He's been computers too long, I guess.

It's just an opinion. We all have one of those. So I'll stick with consoles till I have a reason to switch. And right now I don't. So voila.

What a terrible title for this article, its pretty obvious to me that he meant that consoles will be integrated into the TV just like how they are integrating DVD players and home theater systems into TV's. I also agree that the games will come via a "Steam" like service which considering the extremely good business that Steam and related services have had is a very real possibility. The only thing I don't agree with is the time line 5 - 10 years is a bit short, I would add at least 5 to 10 years to that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcdougall57

i think the selling point of he whole console thing is the whole budget thing because it costs a hell of a lot more to buy a pc with the same specs as the xbox 360. I also find that pc's are a bit less stable and more prone to system failure and crashes (if you dont count the 360 of course haha)

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bullshit it cost more

lets look at the specs

3.2ghz power pc - this is your expense getting a 3+ ghz quadcore x86 equiv


video a custom ati video card, well sir the dev kits have raideon 9800's in them, thats a 3 year old 50$ card

512mb ram, you can get 2gb and faster for less than 50 bucks

20 gig hard drive (dont most computer stores give those away now)

dvd drive - 19 bucks

so you can infact biuld a faster computer with 4x the ram and the same support for a hundered bucks (or so) less

I dont think Nintendo would ever make that move.
A lot of their market is young and casual gamers that could easily find something else to do. So a lot of their market wouldnt make the switch in my opinion.

LOL. What a load of tosh. :rofl:
The PS3 the last console we'll ever see? wtf?
A consoles usual lifespan is about 5 years. Some, like the Megadrive/Genesis & PS2 hang around for longer. Does this guy think we've reached a ceiling in terms of graphical performance for example? Not a chance.

Also people like to have hard copies of game they love. Sure, some will prefer to have only downloaded versions, but you can't beat a hard copy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by osgeld

bullshit it cost more

lets look at the specs

3.2ghz power pc - this is your expense getting a 3+ ghz quadcore x86 equiv


video a custom ati video card, well sir the dev kits have raideon 9800's in them, thats a 3 year old 50$ card

512mb ram, you can get 2gb and faster for less than 50 bucks

20 gig hard drive (dont most computer stores give those away now)

dvd drive - 19 bucks

so you can infact biuld a faster computer with 4x the ram and the same support for a hundered bucks (or so) less

---

THAT is just bullshit. You cannot compare just numbers when you compare a console to a pc. A PC with the same specs would never be as good as the console.

Every PC is different and exactly that fact draws all the hardware power away...
every console is the same.

I doubt it'll happen in the next decade, but this will eventually happen. Though I bet gaming wouldn't be an entirely online pastime, and games would still be offered on discs/cartridges/whatever (in the "traditional" way; IE- going into a shop and buying the game), but "streaming" or downloading your games would be encouraged with bonuses such as discounts or free gifts you wouldn't get for buying the game in a shop; or possibly even vice-versa.

I would just say NO. I would never accept streaming as an alternative for consoles, I want to OWN my games and also want to be able to play them offline. And I dont think that there will be NO box in the future, I dont think they will implement this game-streaming services and the hardware to play the games into a TV.

Hard copies of games will always be better than downloaded versions. If one takes care of optical media well, it would last for ages and wouldn't have to worry about data corruption or possible DRM protection on a hard disk or such with the latter.