'Consoles to die in 5 to 10 years', says ex-Microsoft man

[Shrygue]

via Computer and Video Games


Former Vice President of Xbox Europe Sandy Duncan has cast his doubts on the long term future of the console market, claiming consoles as we know them will die out with a decade.

Speaking in an interview, he said: "There is a definite convergence of other devices, such as set top boxes. There's hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360, for example.

"In fact in 5 to 10 years I don't think you'll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be virtualized as web services by your content provider."

We think he means you'll stream data from a server or PC straight to your telly, so technically they'll still be a box involved somewhere - it just won't be a console as we know it.

Whilst Duncan has a vested interest seeing digital distribution channels open up (he now runs a casual games company), his comments match those of Analyst Billy Pidgeon, who earlier on in the week debated whether the PlayStation 3 would be the last console we'd ever see.

Which, if nothing else, would validate Sony's claim that the PlayStation 3 would have a lifecycle of at least ten years.

[mcdougall57]

i think the selling point of he whole console thing is the whole budget thing because it costs a hell of a lot more to buy a pc with the same specs as the xbox 360. I also find that pc's are a bit less stable and more prone to system failure and crashes (if you dont count the 360 of course haha)

[JKKDARK]

I don't believe this story. I'm sure consoles will never die in the next decades.

[shak bo]

He's right. Let's use personal media players as an example. The Walkman (cassete tapes) was killed by the portable CD player which was it'self de throned by the MP3 player. In this instance we see the data hosted by these devices converted to binary allowing for greater storage. Consoles don't generate revenue, software does. Console manufacturers know that thier business model is dying and are milking it for everything they can. I think this guy is right on the money.

[Mini Moose]

Hahahahah!!!

[robman84]

Not sure of the timescale, but it is a complex business. There have been huge peaks and troughs in what is still an industry less than 40 years old. Some of you may remember the huge slump in the early 80's when it looked like videogames were dead in the water.

To be honest I could care less about the console hardware. It is the software (and the user-interface hardware) that I get excited about.

I'm not convinced I'm ready to "rent" my games though. Same with my music. I like having a CD in my hands. I can put it in my car, rip it to my MP3 player, put it in my wife's car, rip it to her phone, put it on my laptop etc. I have never downloaded music for myself, but when I did for someone as a gift, the whole process felt awful - the DRM made me feel like I was commiting a crime or something.

Putting those kinds of restrictions on games would kill it for me. That, and any kind of interruption to the immediacy of play - having to wait to download a title would put me right off. That's why I use my DS more than any of my consoles. I can be playing a game in seconds, then just turn it off.

The final "question mark" comes from the very nature of "casual games". I love them on my DS, and they really seem to fit. But on my consoles I want to be blown away - I want a visual feast and gameplay to suck my entire day out of me. Compromise, for the sake of homogeneity (sp?) would be a leap backwards.

However, I would be in favour of a single console format. Sadly the taste of MSX, let alone 3DO, is still sour!

[Rocksil]

It could be true soon all these computers we are using will be upgraded to a better specification than the any consle and will be able to play pratically any game we want.

But consoles like wii and handles like NDS and PSP will last longer than that due thier uniqueness like the Wiis motion sensors and stuff (Which can be done on the computer but not really done for gaming on the computer) and the portabilty of handhelds.

But all i am really saying what Duncan said could be true.

[havoc_012]

Consoles and the internet have a lot in common. They're both just a fad.

[paul3100]

one big problem for most of us is that if we were to receive our games and so on through a virtual network hooked up to a box under out tv is how on earth can we still make and use homebrew?

This is a major problem and one im sure will slow down or even halt the process described above, that and the fact as said above people like things to be theres )in there hands).

Or so i think anyway :-)

paul

[Veskgar]

Oh hell no! SO this guy is telling me that in the near future I'm going to have to rely on my greedy cable company to allow for "services" to be provided? What's the monthly rate going to be on that?

NO NO NO! Bad idea. If that ever happens I'll be a less avid gamer. I'll hook up an old NES, Super NES, etc. and reminisce about the glory days wondering what the hell went wrong.

I've worked for cable companies and broadband providers and believe me when I tell you this from an insiders point of view. They don't give a damn about you and will try and rip you off almost any chance they get.

Unless my content provider ends up being NINTENDO FiOps or something, to hell with this.