Xbox 360 to slip to third place by 2015

[wraggster]

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter expects Xbox 360's home console market share to fade to third by 2015, largely due to a lack of penetration in Japan.

"We expect the dominant console at the end of the this cycle to be the Wii, as we think that the console's low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions will provide it with a competitive advantage over the next two years," he said, noting that he still expects the company to introduce a high definition Wii.

"We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony's victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015," he added. "Although Microsoft's Xbox 360 enjoyed a first mover advantage, we think that its market position will fade to third place due to lack of penetration in Japan."

By the end of 2009 he expects Wii to have captured a 49 per cent share of the US and European markets, followed by the Xbox 360 at 29 per cent and the PS3 at 22 per cent.

Two years he sees Wii market share having slipped marginally to 48 per cent, while PS3 and Xbox 360 each hold a 26 per cent share.

http://www.computerandvideogames.com....php?id=218574

[Darksaviour69]

Surely by 2015 the next Xbox will have be out. I wonder does this prediction factor that in? (As a new xbox will take sales away from the ps3)

[VampDude]

Going by when the eighth generation begings, I would say 2011/2012 since the average is 5-8 years.

Xbox360 will definately have a successor in the Microsoft corner.

[Eviltaco64]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that Microsoft will have a new console out by 2011.

Then again, Sony and Nintendo don't see any reason to release a new console at the moment. If Microsoft took their time developing their new console, it could really sell and take steam away from the Wii and PS3.

[Shadowblind]

Oh Michael Pachter. Everytime I read one of your analysis I always get a smile.

These are the kind of people we need more of on the planet. The ones here to make us all grin and laugh.

[VampDude]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that Microsoft will have a new console out by 2011.

Then again, Sony and Nintendo don't see any reason to release a new console at the moment. If Microsoft took their time developing their new console, it could really sell and take steam away from the Wii and PS3.

Microsoft rush things, the original Xbox was released in November of 2001 (just one year after being announced) whereas the Xbox360 was released in November 2005 though the development kit for the 360 was released in 2003.

I'm betting that Microsoft have companies working in secret, titles for a new console. Since Microsoft wont settle for less than second, well first in most cases.

[Darksaviour69]

The first xbox was really just a test, in prep for the 360. They wanted to get the jump on sony. Since it will be a while till sony release ps4 and if you factor that natal should lengthen the 360s life, I think 2012/13 is are more likely date that 2011

[jamotto]

We won't see a new Xbox until 2015, Natal is the extender.

[VampDude]

Ubisoft have said, in January that anytime between now and 2012 there will be a next generation of machines (hopefully).

Consoles, being the closed and fixed platforms they are, have a finite life. Every five years or so, all competitors drop the existing platforms and introduce a new one, thus resetting the console life cycle.

ZoomThe Xbox 360 was released in late 2005, with the Wii and PlayStation 3 coming out a year later. Microsoft made it a point to be out the gate first, but the Xbox 360 signaled the (somewhat early) start of a new generation.

2010, being the usual five years after the start of the generation, feels too soon to start all over again. Video game sales are still on the rise, and the current consoles’ prices either haven’t dropped at all (Wii) or are still considered too expensive for the masses (PS3).

All signs are pointing to this current console generation being one with a longer life bar. In fact, Ubisoft is anticipating the next generation machines sometime in 2011 or 2012.

The fact that developers are still extracting more power out of the current platform shows that there isn’t yet a demand for more headroom. Furthermore, the rising costs of producing engines and assets for a modern game would only be made even more severe on a completely new platform.

Ubisoft knows that the next generation will require even more manpower, and is already looking at possible mergers for when the time comes.

"We want to take advantage of a company that could bring more technology to us, or new brands," said CEO Yves Guillemot to GamesIndustry. "So we have now enough to help us to grow the company for not only next year but to get ready for the coming of the next generation consoles that are probably going to happen 2011, 2012.”

So between now and 2012, Microsoft will hopefully have fixed all reliability problems; Sony will have dropped the PS3 price to Xbox 360 levels; and Nintendo will have sold at least one Wii to everyone on the planet.

[da1writer]

Ubisoft have said, in January that anytime between now and 2012 there will be a next generation of machines (hopefully).

Yeah... and they don't factor in that the economy is in the crapper and that it doesn't look like it's going to be getting any better anytime soon. People are spending less money now than ever before, Does Ubisoft (or anyone for that matter) really believe that people are ready this time around to jump on a newer console. People have a hard time buying a PS3...
In all honesty, I agree with the few posters so far, there will be a new console from Microsoft, it's called project Natal. It's going to lengthen the cycle of the 360 (and probably have a bundle with the new accessory) and Microsoft has already mentioned that their original plan (due to the way the economy is right now) is kinda out the window and that they are now put a 10 year life span on the 360. Sony is doing the same thing with these new motion sensing sticks, it's to lengthen the life of the PS3. So in other words, take this new information from Michael Pachter with a grain of salt. He stated/analized that Sony would be announcing a price drop of the PS3 and PSP at E3... it never happened...